Trends show strong growth over the past two decades. In Nigeria, annual per capita use increased from ~4 kg in 2007 to ~5.9 kg in 2018 (mdpi.com). A UNEP analysis notes that, without intervention, plastic consumption in Africa will continue to increase with population. Thus, Ghana’s plastic waste is estimated at ~0.84 Mt currently and (with annual growth of ~5.4%) could triple to ~2.4 Mt by 2040 (weforum.org). Globally, OECD models project that plastics production will grow ~70% by 2040 (to ~736 Mt) under current conditions (oecd.org), thus outpacing population. (Low- and middle-income regions, especially Asia and parts of Africa, are projected to drive most of this increase.)

While these production and consumption figures in Africa are low compared to the rest of the world, the increase in imports of manufactured plastic products and packaging in African countries is worrying.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa are the largest contributors to plastic leakage on the continent. These countries are joined by Algeria and Morocco, among the top 20 coastal countries worldwide contributing to marine plastic pollution (Jambeck et al., 2018). The total amount of mismanaged plastic waste in African coastal countries was estimated at 4.4 million tons in 2010 (Jambeck et al., 2018). A more recent study estimates a much higher figure, which also includes contributions from landlocked countries.

Africa generated a total of 19 million tons of plastic waste in 2015, of which 17 million tons were mismanaged. This compares to the global amount of 60 to 99 million tons of mismanaged plastic waste in 2015, which is projected to triple by 2060 if the current situation continues (Lebreton and Andrady, 2019).

Geographic hotspots of plastic leakage from land-based sources have been identified in many rivers near urban centers where there is high waste generation but poor management. More than a quarter of the global total of mismanaged plastic waste leaked into the watersheds of 14 major rivers, including four large African rivers: the Congo, the Niger, the Nile, and the Zambezi (Lebreton and Andrady, 2019).

These four river basins overlap with the urban regions of some of Africa’s largest cities, where the majority of plastic waste is generated, making them hotspots for plastic dumping. Furthermore, these four river basins are part of 63 major transboundary river basins in Africa (UNEP, 2010) and are therefore potential carriers of plastic waste to other African countries and, eventually, to the ocean.

Domestic consumption and the resulting waste generation are not the only cause of plastic pollution in Africa; large amounts of plastic waste are also imported from other countries that do not treat it locally. With the 2018 ban on plastic waste imports to China, plastic waste exports—mainly from developed countries, such as the United States and some European Union countries—were diverted to other developing countries, primarily in Southeast Asia, but also to certain African countries, such as Ethiopia and Senegal (McCormick et al., 2019). This could lead to increased plastic pollution in countries with poor and limited infrastructure for solid waste management and recycling, making it critical for African countries to limit the amount of imported plastic waste. The Basel Convention, which revised amendments to improve the control of transboundary movements of plastic waste, entered into force in January 2021. The objective is to ensure that importing countries provide prior informed consent for the entry of plastic waste into those countries. It is unclear what impact this amendment has had on the trade in plastic waste destined for Africa.